Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Wednesday Sept 10 outlook

The /ES opened yesterday at 1998, hit a high of 1999.5 and a low of 1983.25 before closing at 1987.5. It traded between 1986 and 1992 overnight and looks to open around 1988. The 10yr finished yesterday at 2.5, about flat on the day. It's currently hovering around 2.537 in the pre. The /VX opened around 13.5 and finished at 14, it looks to open around 13.92.

A couple of stocks are getting knocked after the AAPL presentation:
GTAT opened at 17.30 yesterday and finished at 14.90. It hit an ETH low of 13.31 and is currently trading down 7.3% at 13.74 on light volume. This comes after Apple decided not to broadly use GTAT's phone screens. Furthermore, it's been speculated by Cannacord that GTAT may default on a loan provided to it by AAPL. Weekly IV is at 97.5% pricing in a move of $1.06 by Friday opex. The pre-mkt move is indicative of IV 116%.
EBAY opened yesterday at 54.50 and closed at 52.60. It's currently trading down 2.5% near the ETH lows of 51.4 on light volume after AAPL announced Apple Pay. It's weekly IV  is 32.3% and the pre-mkt move is indicative of IV of 38%. Weekly opex straddle currently prices a move of $1.25.

MBLY has been on an absolute rip in the past five days. It went from 46 on Sept 10 to a high of 58 yesterday, though it closed at 56.50. It's currently trading at 55.27 in the pre-market, a drop of 2.3%, indicative of IV of 36.6%. It does not have weekly options, but its Sep IV is currently at 79.7%, pricing in a move of $6.00 by Sep expiry.

AMZN is trading up 1.8% at 335.75 after closing at 329.75 after ChannelAdvisor said SSS came in at +45% after posting _40% in July. Weekly IV is 31.5% and the pre-mkt move is indicative of IV at 28.6%.

Recap from day prior:

VNET absolutely imploded yesterday. Nobody has any idea why, Benzinga cited "investors freeing up cash for BABA ipo". I might be able to go along with that if there wasn't massive put buying driving up implied volatility through the roof.

MCD IV didn't come close to covering the move it made yesterday, straddle would have been +100%

AAPL made some large swings but basically went nowhere, straddle sellers won that battle.

EBAY saw big volume in the weekly 54.5 calls at .85. Only profitably if you flipped them quick, stock got smoked on the day when AAPL announced iWallet

BRCM saw action in the weekly 40.5 puts at .40 off the bat, they're somewhat profitable at around .50 now. 

CREE had a t/o rumor hit around 0958hrs. Stock popped on light volume, not much action in the weeklys either. Faded hard afterward.

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